Wednesday, September 21, 2016

Pakistan's atttack on URI

Attack in URI army base is obviously a handiwork of Pakistan.
It is in continuation of the Pakistan policy of exacting Thousand Cuts and bleeding of India. Till India is able to break up Pakistan once again, India shall have to pay these prices.
Unless India is able to ensure that Pakistan is unable to get away cheap, it will continue with these adventures. Hence the crux of the matter is how to increase the HEAT on Pakistan. Isolating it diplomatically has limited payback. Every nation viz., USA shall act as per it’s own agenda. Morality has never been an essential element of any nation’s FOREIGN POLICY. USA,China and Saudi Arabia shall continue to support Pakistan i.e. unless the Muslim hater Trump gets to sit in the white house.
India needs to engage with all who are having issues with Pakistan. Afghanistan can be useful in creating a pincer effect on Pakistan. India can seek help from Afghanistan’s Government to create problems on their western front.
Instigating Afghanistan and Balochs can jeopardize the FATE LINE or भाग्य रेखा of Pakistan i.e. China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Pakistan is majorly pinning it’s hopes and aspirations on the CPEC. Pakistan hopes to add 2.5% to it’s GDP courtesy CPEC. Once again it is hinging it’s destiny to a foreign power. Jinnah extracted the rent from USA by positioning it as a strategic location to counter the hegemony of USSR. Now Nawaz Sharif is trying to extract a similar rent, from current super power i.e. China. China needed Pakistan to fulfill it’s aspirations of One Belt-One Road vision. It desires a direct market route to European and African market. The crown jewel of the CPEC is the Gwadar Port.
If India is able to throw a spanner in this ambitious project and ensure a disruption of work in CPEC, it could cost Pakistan very steep. Ensuring a 5 or 10 years delay may diminish the China’s ardor and possibility of abandoning of the project.
Except for a small sliver of a border being shared with China, Pakistan shares it’s border with three nations. That is India, Afghanistan and Iran. If India is able to finagle support of Afghanistan, Pakistan would be caught in a pincer. Iran is in little position to play any significant role. The 95% Shia population of Iran and it’s recent spar over Haj with Saudi Arab has complicated their role in Islamic arena.
In 1971 USA and China were dead against India and yet none interfered effectively. India should not give much credence to the rhetoric of China. India is a major customer for China. Our import from China is in excess of 60 Billion dollars. No one shoots at his customer.
Besides वही मार सकता है जो मार खाने की हिम्मत रखता है. Yes we need to do our homework and not resort to vacuous forward movement like the ones of 1962 Indo China War. Once Pakistan gets hit in the groins, our problems in J&K will deescalate. Today India has been bearing the cost unilaterally. Once Pakistan gets a bill, it will desist in supping with the separatists of J&K. The war would cost India dearly in terms of economy. This cost needs to be treated as a Capital Investment to be amortized over the next decade. The ROI looks attractive.

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